St Patrick's Athl. 2-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 8W 0D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bohemians's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bohemians trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 56% versus Bohemians 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Bohemians 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.45 xG and Bohemians 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.055 / defence 0.990 | Bohemians attack 1.015 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.121. Bohemians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 St Patrick's Athl. games / 32 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 29%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Bohemians 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.45 / Bohemians 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.055 / def 0.990 | Bohemians attack 1.015 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Bohemians xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 44% chance of winning, Bohemians a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.05) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.83
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.58
1.13
Bohemians xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.13 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 32 games, going 18W 5D 9L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (12W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Bohemians — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 12W 0D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — St Patrick's Athl. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.62 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 5D 9L in their last 32 games (1.84 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 12W 8D 12L in their last 32 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Bohemians away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.40 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.27 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bohemians in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
5
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Bohemians have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 40%, Bohemians 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 47% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 67% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 47% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians finished level at 2-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.45 xG and Bohemians 1.13 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Bohemians attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 29%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Bohemians 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.