Waterford 2-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Derry City at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 November 2021 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Waterford — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Waterford have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waterford at 1.70 PPG versus Derry City's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waterford register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derry City in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Derry City in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 47% versus Derry City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 53% | Derry City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.38 xG and Derry City 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.060 / defence 1.214 | Derry City attack 0.951 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.102. Data: 32 Waterford games / 32 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 40% | Draw 26% | Derry City 34%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Derry City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 60% | Derry City 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 40% | Draw 26% | Derry City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Waterford 1.38 / Derry City 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.060 / def 1.214 | Derry City attack 0.951 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Waterford (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Derry City xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Derry City kick off?
Waterford vs Derry City kicked off at 18:15 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Waterford 2 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Waterford vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Derry City part of?
Waterford vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 40% chance of winning, Derry City a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Waterford and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Derry City in?
Waterford (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Derry City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
40%
2.53
26%
3.84
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.65
1.27
Derry City xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Waterford and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Waterford and 1.27 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 3D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.44 PPG from 32 outings (12W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.22 PPG, Derry City on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waterford's home form reads 6W 2D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (7W 2D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.31 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Derry City in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 12W 3D 17L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Derry City have gone 12W 10D 10L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.33 PPG; Derry City away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waterford and Derry City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
1
Draws
6
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 3, Derry City have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Derry City 2-4 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 47%, Derry City 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Waterford) and 47% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Waterford have failed to score in 27% of games; Derry City in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Waterford's recent matches and 53% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Waterford's recent games and 47% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Derry City tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Derry City in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Derry City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 30, as Waterford and Derry City drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.38 xG and Derry City 1.27 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.06 / defence 1.21 against Derry City attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 40% | Draw 26% | Derry City 34%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 53%, Derry City 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.22 PPG, Derry City 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.