Longford Town 0-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Longford Town face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Longford Town welcome Shamrock Rovers to Bishopsgate Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 29 May 2021 at 17:00 UK time.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Longford Town have won 0, Shamrock Rovers 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Apr 2021, ended Longford Town 1–2 Shamrock Rovers — a Shamrock Rovers win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.70 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.760 / defence 1.244 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.978 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 0.924 / away 1.304. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Data: built from Longford Town's last 13 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 13.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 16% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 59%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 6.20 | Draw 3.95 | Shamrock Rovers 1.71. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 14 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 16% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Longford Town 0.70 / Shamrock Rovers 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.760 / def 1.244 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.978 / def 0.995 | league avg home 0.924 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Shamrock Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Longford Town 0 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 14) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 16% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Longford Town's attack rating (0.76) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Longford Town's last 13 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
16%
6.20
25%
3.95
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.29
1.59
Shamrock Rovers xG
6.20
16%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
3%
30.28
29%
3.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.59 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Longford Town (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 23 October 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Longford Town's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
0
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Longford Town have won 0, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2021: Longford Town 0-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Longford Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Longford Town 0-1 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.70 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.59 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.76 / defence 1.24 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 16% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 59%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.