Drogheda United 1-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Derry City meet at Head in the Game Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 May 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.23 xG and Derry City 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.243 / defence 1.014 | Derry City attack 0.712 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 0.954 / away 1.268. Data: 13 Drogheda United games / 13 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 43% | Draw 30% | Derry City 27%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Derry City 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Drogheda United at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 May 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 43% | Draw 30% | Derry City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Drogheda United 1.23 / Derry City 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.243 / def 1.014 | Derry City attack 0.712 / def 1.034 | league avg home 0.954 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Derry City xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Derry City kick off?
Drogheda United vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 May 2021 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Drogheda United 1 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Drogheda United vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Derry City part of?
Drogheda United vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 43% chance of winning, Derry City a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Drogheda United and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Derry City in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Drogheda United's attack rating (1.24) and Derry City's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.71x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.39
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.14
0.92
Derry City xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.92 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 5-1 on 28 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Drogheda United
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Drogheda United.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Drogheda United 1-2 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.23 xG and Derry City 0.92 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.24 / defence 1.01 against Derry City attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 43% | Draw 30% | Derry City 27%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.