Dundalk 1-1 UCD – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Dundalk at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dundalk face UCD.

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Analysis

UCD make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Friday 17 February 2023 at 19:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Dundalk have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

UCD (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

UCD's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Dundalk against 1.30 for UCD. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Dundalk, 1 for UCD and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Sep 2022, ended Dundalk 2–3 UCD — a UCD win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

UCD — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 45% versus UCD 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | UCD 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.62 xG and UCD 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.056 / defence 0.985 | UCD attack 0.975 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.057. Data: built from Dundalk's last 36 games and UCD's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Dundalk 52% | Draw 25% | UCD 24%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.94 | Draw 4.04 | UCD 4.22. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dundalk 40% (last 10 home games) | UCD 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Dundalk 36 games, UCD 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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