Sligo Rovers 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Sligo Rovers take on Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Sligo Rovers (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at The Showgrounds, Sligo Rovers have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Showgrounds. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 47% versus Shamrock Rovers 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 40% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.16 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.008 / defence 0.952 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.035 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.052. Data: 36 Sligo Rovers games / 36 Shamrock Rovers games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 35% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 29%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Shamrock Rovers 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | Shamrock Rovers 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 35% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.16 / Shamrock Rovers 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.008 / def 0.952 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.035 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Shamrock Rovers xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 35% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 1.01x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.03x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
36%
2.75
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.19
1.04
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.04 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 30W 19D 23L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 48W 13D 11L from 72 games, 2.18 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sligo Rovers.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.69 PPG from 36 outings (17W 10D 9L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 20W 6D 10L from 36 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.67 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 30W 19D 23L in their last 72 games (1.51 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 48W 13D 11L in their last 72 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.69 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 on 13 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 4, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 47%, Shamrock Rovers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sligo Rovers) and 39% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 42% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 1-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.16 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.04 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 35% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 40%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.