Bohemians 2-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Dundalk meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Dundalk (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dundalk's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bohemians, 1.40 for Dundalk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 64% versus Dundalk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 53% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.30 xG and Dundalk 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.019 / defence 1.033 | Dundalk attack 0.986 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.050. Data: 37 Bohemians games / 37 Dundalk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 38% | Draw 35% | Dundalk 27%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Dundalk 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 50% | Dundalk 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 38% | Draw 35% | Dundalk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1.30 / Dundalk 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.019 / def 1.033 | Dundalk attack 0.986 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Dundalk xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Dundalk kick off?
Bohemians vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Bohemians 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Bohemians vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Dundalk part of?
Bohemians vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 38% chance of winning, Dundalk a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.99x) against Bohemians's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
38%
2.64
35%
2.82
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.37
1.07
Dundalk xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.07 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians come into this having played 72 games, going 26W 20D 26L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.54 PPG from 72 outings (30W 21D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Bohemians against 1.54 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians's home form reads 16W 9D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.14 points per game from 36 outings (9W 14D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.31 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Dundalk away?
Bohemians's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.58 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Dundalk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
3
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Dundalk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 64%, Dundalk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bohemians) and 36% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bohemians's games and 50% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Bohemians's recent games and 36% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Dundalk tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Dundalk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Dundalk 2-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.30 xG and Dundalk 1.07 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Dundalk attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 38% | Draw 35% | Dundalk 27%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 53%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.36 PPG, Dundalk 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.