1. FC Magdeburg 2-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Avnet Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg at Avnet Arena this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Magdeburg at 1.60 PPG versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 58% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 54% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.47 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.946 / defence 0.948 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.006 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.497. Data: 41 1. FC Magdeburg games / 41 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Avnet Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.47 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.946 / def 0.948 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.006 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Avnet Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Magdeburg 2 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Avnet Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 36% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 1W | Draws 2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.36
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.43
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.43 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 13W 14D 14L from 41 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 14L across 41 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.29 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 6W 9D 5L from 20 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.49 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 41 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 16W 11D 14L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.35 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
4
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 65%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 45% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 40% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent games and 45% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 8, as 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.47 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 54%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.29 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.