Hamburger SV 3-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Volksparkstadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Hamburger SV, 1.70 for 1. FC Magdeburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Hamburger SV 1W, 1. FC Magdeburg 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 57% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 62% | 1. FC Magdeburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.68 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.283 / defence 0.898 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.262 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.460. Hamburger SV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Hamburger SV games / 42 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 36%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 60% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG Hamburger SV 1.68 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.283 / def 0.898 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.262 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.66
1. FC Magdeburg xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Hamburger SV 3 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 37% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (4 meetings): Hamburger SV 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2W.
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.28) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.26x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.74
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.33
1.66
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.66 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 21W 10D 11L from 42 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 14L across 42 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Magdeburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 14W 2D 5L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 21W 10D 11L in their last 42 games (1.74 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 13W 15D 14L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.10 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Hamburger SV go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 0-3 on 14 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 3, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when 1. FC Magdeburg 0-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 52%, 1. FC Magdeburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hamburger SV) and 52% (1. FC Magdeburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 52% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Hamburger SV's matches and 52% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1. FC Magdeburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Magdeburg 3-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.68 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.66 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.28 / defence 0.90 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.26 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 36%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.