1. FC Köln 2-0 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SSV Ulm 1846 make the trip to RheinEnergieSTADION to face 1. FC Köln in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at RheinEnergieSTADION, 1. FC Köln have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SSV Ulm 1846 (all games): 2W 1D 4L across 7 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SSV Ulm 1846 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for 1. FC Köln, 1.00 for SSV Ulm 1846 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
SSV Ulm 1846 — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 86% and SSV Ulm 1846 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Köln 100% | SSV Ulm 1846 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.79 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.295 / defence 1.251 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.829 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.532. 1. FC Köln carry an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 1. FC Köln games / 7 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 40% | Draw 28% | SSV Ulm 1846 32%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | SSV Ulm 1846 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 60% | SSV Ulm 1846 33%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: RheinEnergieSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 40% | Draw 28% | SSV Ulm 1846 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.79 / SSV Ulm 1846 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.295 / def 1.251 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.829 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.59
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846?
1. FC Köln 2 - 0 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 40% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both 1. FC Köln and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SSV Ulm 1846?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against SSV Ulm 1846's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — SSV Ulm 1846's attack (0.83x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.62
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.38
1.59
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.59 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 2W 3D 2L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Ulm 1846's form line: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.00 for SSV Ulm 1846. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 71%.
Last 7 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
SSV Ulm 1846
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or SSV Ulm 1846 away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.33 PPG; SSV Ulm 1846 away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
0
Draws
0
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 0-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and SSV Ulm 1846?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 67%, SSV Ulm 1846 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for 1. FC Köln and 33% for SSV Ulm 1846. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SSV Ulm 1846 in 33%; SSV Ulm 1846 in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play SSV Ulm 1846?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 33% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 33% of SSV Ulm 1846's.
Do 1. FC Köln and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SSV Ulm 1846.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat SSV Ulm 1846 2-0 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.79 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.59 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.29 / defence 1.25 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 40% | Draw 28% | SSV Ulm 1846 32%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 86% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 100%, SSV Ulm 1846 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.29 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.