Metz 0-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Metz at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Metz vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Metz host Niort at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 2 (matchday 16). Kick-off is Monday 26 December 2022 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Metz have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Metz at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Metz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Niort stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Niort's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Metz have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Niort in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 47% versus Niort 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 49% | Niort 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.50 xG and Niort 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 1.063 / defence 1.210 | Niort attack 0.915 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.040. Niort's defence rating of 1.256 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Metz's projected output up. Metz's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Niort's projected output up. Data: built from Metz's last 15 games and Niort's last 53.
Result probabilities: Metz 45% | Draw 26% | Niort 29%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.20 | Draw 3.91 | Niort 3.44. Metz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Metz are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Metz 40% (last 10 home games) | Niort 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 16 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Monday 26 December 2022 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 45% | Draw 26% | Niort 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Metz 1.50 / Niort 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 1.063 / def 1.210 | Niort attack 0.915 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Metz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Niort xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Metz vs Niort FAQs
What time does Metz vs Niort kick off?
Metz vs Niort kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Niort?
Metz 0 - 0 Niort.
Where is Metz vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Niort part of?
Metz vs Niort is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 16) (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 45% chance of winning, Niort a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Metz and Niort will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Metz vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Metz's attack rating (1.06) and Niort's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Metz's last 15 games and Niort's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.91
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Metz xG
Total xG
2.66
1.15
Niort xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
6%
15.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Metz vs Niort Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Metz and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Metz and 1.15 for Niort, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Metz come into this having played 53 games, going 12W 16D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Niort sit at 1.09 PPG from 53 outings (15W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 0.98 PPG, Niort on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Metz's home form reads 7W 8D 11L across their last 26 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Niort have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 26 away games (6W 6D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Metz are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.96 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Niort
Blended
Metz (Home) vs Niort (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Metz
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Metz vs Niort Form FAQs
What form are Metz and Niort in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 12W 16D 25L in their last 53 games (0.98 PPG), while Niort have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Niort away?
Metz's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.12 PPG; Niort away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 6 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Metz
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Metz vs Niort H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Niort?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Metz have won 1, Niort have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Metz and Niort last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 May 2023: Niort 1-3 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Niort?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 50%, Niort 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Metz) and 50% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Metz have failed to score in 35% of games; Niort in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Metz vs Niort Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Metz and Niort matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Metz's recent matches and 38% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Metz and Niort matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Metz's recent games and 50% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Niort matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Metz's recent matches and 69% of Niort's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Metz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz and Niort finished level at 0-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.50 xG and Niort 1.15 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Metz fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Niort landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.06 / defence 1.21 against Niort attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 45% | Draw 26% | Niort 29%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 49%, Niort 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Niort's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 0.98 PPG, Niort 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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