Sochaux 1-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Monday 26 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sochaux have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Sochaux have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Sochaux's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sochaux 2W, Rodez 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Sochaux winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 47% versus Rodez 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 42% | Rodez 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.24 xG and Rodez 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.212 / defence 0.918 | Rodez attack 0.978 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.040. Data: 53 Sochaux games / 53 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 43% | Draw 29% | Rodez 28%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Rodez 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 60% | Rodez 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 43% | Draw 29% | Rodez 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Sochaux 1.24 / Rodez 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.212 / def 0.918 | Rodez attack 0.978 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Rodez xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Rodez kick off?
Sochaux vs Rodez kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Rodez?
Sochaux 1 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Sochaux vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Rodez part of?
Sochaux vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 43% chance of winning, Rodez a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sochaux and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Rodez?
Record (2 meetings): Sochaux 2W | Draws 0 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Rodez in?
Sochaux (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sochaux's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.98x) against Sochaux's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.46
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.17
0.93
Rodez xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.93 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sochaux's recent record stands at 27W 15D 11L from 53 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 21L across 53 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rodez heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sochaux have managed 15W 8D 3L from 26 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 8W 7D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.85 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Rodez in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 27W 15D 11L in their last 53 games (1.81 PPG), while Rodez have gone 13W 19D 21L in their last 53 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Rodez away?
Sochaux's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.04 PPG; Rodez away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Rodez in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sochaux go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sochaux
0
Draws
0
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 4, Rodez have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Rodez 1-2 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Rodez?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 46%, Rodez 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Sochaux and 27% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Rodez in 38%; Rodez in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sochaux's recent matches and 31% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Sochaux's recent games and 27% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Rodez tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rodez in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out Rodez 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Rodez 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.24 xG and Rodez 0.93 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rodez landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Rodez attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 43% | Draw 29% | Rodez 28%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 42%, Rodez 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rodez's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.