Nimes 1-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nimes and Guingamp meet at Stade des Antonins in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Nimes (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes at Stade des Antonins this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Antonins. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nimes are significantly better at Stade des Antonins than their overall form suggests.
Guingamp have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Nimes 0W, Guingamp 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nimes — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 49% versus Guingamp 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 49% | Guingamp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.08 xG and Guingamp 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.897 / defence 0.798 | Guingamp attack 1.139 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.040. Nimes's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Nimes games / 53 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 38% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 31%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nimes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 20% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade des Antonins • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 38% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Nimes 1.08 / Guingamp 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.897 / def 0.798 | Guingamp attack 1.139 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Nimes (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Guingamp xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Guingamp kick off?
Nimes vs Guingamp kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stade des Antonins.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Guingamp?
Nimes 1 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Nimes vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Antonins.
What competition is Nimes vs Guingamp part of?
Nimes vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 38% chance of winning, Guingamp a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Nimes and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Guingamp?
Record (2 meetings): Nimes 0W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Nimes and Guingamp in?
Nimes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nimes's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.14x) against Nimes's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.28
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.03
0.94
Guingamp xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nimes and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Nimes and 0.94 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nimes's recent record stands at 18W 10D 25L from 53 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 15L across 53 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Nimes against 1.47 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 10W 5D 11L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 9W 9D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nimes are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.34 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 18W 10D 25L in their last 53 games (1.21 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 20W 18D 15L in their last 53 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.35 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nimes have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nimes
0
Draws
3
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 1, Guingamp have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Guingamp 1-2 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nimes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 46%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Nimes) and 42% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 38% of games; Guingamp in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nimes's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Nimes's recent games and 42% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Guingamp tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Nimes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Nimes 1-2 at Stade des Antonins, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.08 xG and Guingamp 0.94 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.90 / defence 0.80 against Guingamp attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 38% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 31%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 49%, Guingamp 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.21 PPG, Guingamp 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.