Metz 1-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Metz face Caen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Caen make the trip to Stade Saint-Symphorien to face Metz in Ligue 2 (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Metz's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Metz at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Caen have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Caen have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Metz's last 10 home games and Caen's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Metz's games and 70% of Caen's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Metz, 1 for Caen and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Feb 2023, ended Metz 0–0 Caen — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 56% versus Caen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 52% | Caen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 2.07 xG and Caen 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 1.162 / defence 0.979 | Caen attack 1.139 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.097. Caen's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Metz's projected output up. Data: built from Metz's last 12 games and Caen's last 50.
Result probabilities: Metz 57% | Draw 21% | Caen 22%. Fair-value odds: Metz 1.76 | Draw 4.75 | Caen 4.52. The model has a clear lean to Metz (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.07 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Metz as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Metz's last 10 home games and Caen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Metz 70% (last 10 home games) | Caen 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 13 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 57% | Draw 21% | Caen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Metz 2.07 / Caen 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 1.162 / def 0.979 | Caen attack 1.139 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Metz (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Caen xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Metz vs Caen FAQs
What time does Metz vs Caen kick off?
Metz vs Caen kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Caen?
Metz 1 - 0 Caen.
Where is Metz vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Caen part of?
Metz vs Caen is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 13) (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 57% chance of winning, Caen a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Metz and Caen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Metz vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Metz's attack at 1.16x the league average against Caen's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Caen's attack (1.14x) against Metz's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Metz's last 12 games and Caen's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.75
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Metz xG
Total xG
3.29
1.22
Caen xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
3%
35.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Metz vs Caen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Metz and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Metz and 1.22 for Caen, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Caen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Metz's recent record stands at 14W 9D 25L from 48 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Caen, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 20L across 48 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Metz against 1.38 for Caen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Metz have managed 6W 6D 11L from their last 23 home games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Caen's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across their last 23 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Metz are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Caen
Blended
Metz (Home) vs Caen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Metz
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Metz vs Caen Form FAQs
What form are Metz and Caen in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 14W 9D 25L in their last 48 games (1.06 PPG), while Caen have gone 19W 9D 20L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Caen away?
Metz's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.04 PPG; Caen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Metz or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Caen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Metz and Caen, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Metz
2
Draws
1
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Metz vs Caen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Caen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Metz have won 1, Caen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Caen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Caen 2-2 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 56%, Caen 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Metz and 74% for Caen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Metz vs Caen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Metz and Caen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Metz's games and 70% of Caen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Metz and Caen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Metz's matches and 74% of Caen's.
Do Metz and Caen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Metz's recent matches and 83% of Caen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Metz edge out Caen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Caen 1-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 2.07 xG and Caen 1.22 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Metz fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Caen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Caen attack 1.14 / defence 1.24, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 57% | Draw 21% | Caen 22%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 52%, Caen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Caen's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.06 PPG, Caen 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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