Ajaccio 2-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade Michel-Moretti to take on Ajaccio. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 November 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's home record at Stade Michel-Moretti: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade Michel-Moretti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ajaccio 0.80 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ajaccio, 2 for Clermont Foot and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 37% versus Clermont Foot 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 37% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.13 xG and Clermont Foot 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.841 / defence 0.865 | Clermont Foot attack 0.757 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.094. Data: 49 Ajaccio games / 12 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 45% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 23%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Clermont Foot 4.35. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Clermont Foot's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajaccio as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 50% | Clermont Foot 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Michel-Moretti • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 45% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Ajaccio 1.13 / Clermont Foot 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.841 / def 0.865 | Clermont Foot attack 0.757 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Clermont Foot xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Ajaccio 2 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot part of?
Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 45% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Ajaccio and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 2W.
What form are Ajaccio and Clermont Foot in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (0.84) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
45%
2.21
31%
3.18
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.84
0.72
Clermont Foot xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.72 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajaccio come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 10D 22L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 0.87 PPG from 46 outings (9W 13D 24L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajaccio on 1.13 PPG, Clermont Foot on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ajaccio's home form reads 13W 5D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Ajaccio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.83 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 13D 24L in their last 46 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Clermont Foot away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.00 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajaccio and Clermont Foot runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajaccio have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ajaccio's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
0
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Ajaccio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 46%, Clermont Foot 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ajaccio) and 54% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 46% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ajaccio's recent games and 54% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajaccio cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Clermont Foot 2-0 at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.13 xG and Clermont Foot 0.72 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against Clermont Foot attack 0.76 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 45% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 23%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 37%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.13 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.