RED Star FC 93 0-3 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estac Troyes make the trip to Stade de Paris to face RED Star FC 93 in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de Paris, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for RED Star FC 93, 1.10 for Estac Troyes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
RED Star FC 93 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estac Troyes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (RED Star FC 93 42% | Estac Troyes 25%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 50% | Estac Troyes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.10 xG and Estac Troyes 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.818 / defence 1.291 | Estac Troyes attack 0.801 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.094. Data: 12 RED Star FC 93 games / 50 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 35% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 36%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Estac Troyes 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 40% | Estac Troyes 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 35% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.10 / Estac Troyes 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.818 / def 1.291 | Estac Troyes attack 0.801 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Estac Troyes xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes?
RED Star FC 93 0 - 3 Estac Troyes.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 35% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Estac Troyes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Estac Troyes in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.80x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
35%
2.88
29%
3.46
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.23
1.13
Estac Troyes xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.13 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RED Star FC 93's recent record stands at 4W 2D 6L from 12 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 7L across 12 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 0.92 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RED Star FC 93 have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 0.67 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 25%.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Estac Troyes away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.40 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.80 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Estac Troyes have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estac Troyes won 0-3 on 8 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
RED Star FC 93
1
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when Estac Troyes 1-0 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 40%, Estac Troyes 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (RED Star FC 93) and 40% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 40%; Estac Troyes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 40% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 40% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 0-3 hammering of RED Star FC 93.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat RED Star FC 93 0-3 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.10 xG and Estac Troyes 1.13 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Estac Troyes attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 35% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 36%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 50%, Estac Troyes 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.17 PPG, Estac Troyes 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.