Nice 2-3 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Nice welcome Monaco to Allianz Riviera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Nice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's home record at Allianz Riviera: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Monaco have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nice at 1.70 PPG versus Monaco's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Nice, 2 for Monaco and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 43% versus Monaco 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 31% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.55 xG and Monaco 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.990 / defence 0.629 | Monaco attack 1.308 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.085. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — the away xG of 0.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Nice's defence rating of 0.629 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Nice games / 58 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 50% | Draw 30% | Monaco 19%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Monaco 5.26. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nice 20% | Monaco 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 50% | Draw 30% | Monaco 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Nice 1.55 / Monaco 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.990 / def 0.629 | Monaco attack 1.308 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Nice (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Monaco xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Monaco kick off?
Nice vs Monaco kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Monaco?
Nice 2 - 3 Monaco.
Where is Nice vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Monaco part of?
Nice vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 50% chance of winning, Monaco a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nice and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Monaco?
Record (5 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 1 | Monaco 2W.
What form are Nice and Monaco in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nice's attack at 0.99x the league average against Monaco's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.29
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Nice xG
Total xG
2.44
0.89
Monaco xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
4%
24.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nice and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Nice and 0.89 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Nice have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 26W 19D 13L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 29W 13D 16L from 58 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.67 PPG, Monaco on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (14W 10D 5L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 14W 9D 6L from 29 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.84 scored and 1.48 conceded. Monaco's attacking output running into Nice's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 62%.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Monaco in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 26W 19D 13L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while Monaco have gone 29W 13D 16L in their last 58 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Monaco away?
Nice's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.79 PPG; Monaco away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Nice or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Monaco in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Nice won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
3
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Monaco have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Nice 0-0 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 38%, Monaco 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Nice) and 66% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Nice have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nice's recent matches and 66% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Nice's recent games and 66% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Monaco tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Monaco in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monaco defy the odds to beat Nice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Nice 2-3 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.55 xG and Monaco 0.89 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Monaco outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.99 / defence 0.63 against Monaco attack 1.31 / defence 1.14, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 50% | Draw 30% | Monaco 19%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Monaco win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 31%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.67 PPG, Monaco 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.