Clermont Foot 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stade Brestois 29 (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Clermont Foot face Stade Brestois 29.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Clermont Foot welcome Stade Brestois 29 to Stade Gabriel-Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stade Brestois 29 — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Stade Brestois 29 have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Clermont Foot.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Stade Brestois 29 have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 52% versus Stade Brestois 29 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Stade Brestois 29 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.81 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.702 / defence 1.126 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.134 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.086. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Clermont Foot games / 58 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 20% | Draw 32% | Stade Brestois 29 48%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Stade Brestois 29 2.08. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 30% | Stade Brestois 29 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 20% | Draw 32% | Stade Brestois 29 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Clermont Foot 0.81 / Stade Brestois 29 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.702 / def 1.126 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.134 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Stade Brestois 29 xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 20% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (5 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 1 | Stade Brestois 29 4W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.70x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
20%
5.06
32%
3.12
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.20
1.39
Stade Brestois 29 xG
5.06
20%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
5%
20.24
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.3 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.39 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 20W 14D 24L from 58 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 20L across 58 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.28 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 10W 6D 13L from 29 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 9W 8D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.26 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 20W 14D 24L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 17D 20L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.24 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 41%, Stade Brestois 29 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Clermont Foot) and 48% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 41% of games; Stade Brestois 29 in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 55% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 48% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.81 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.39 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.70 / defence 1.13 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 20% | Draw 32% | Stade Brestois 29 48%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.28 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.