Le Havre 0-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Rennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Le Havre welcome Rennes to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rennes — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Le Havre 1.30 PPG, Rennes 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Le Havre, 0 for Rennes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rennes trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Rennes 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 34% | Rennes 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.36 xG and Rennes 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.997 / defence 1.039 | Rennes attack 1.069 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.088. Data: 20 Le Havre games / 58 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 37% | Draw 32% | Rennes 30%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Rennes 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 40% | Rennes 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 37% | Draw 32% | Rennes 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Le Havre 1.36 / Rennes 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.997 / def 1.039 | Rennes attack 1.069 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Rennes xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Rennes kick off?
Le Havre vs Rennes kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Rennes?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Le Havre vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Rennes part of?
Le Havre vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 37% chance of winning, Rennes a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Le Havre and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Rennes?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Rennes 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Rennes in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Le Havre's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Rennes's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
37%
2.67
32%
3.12
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.57
1.21
Rennes xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
8%
12.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.21 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 24D 9L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.66 PPG from 58 outings (28W 12D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.71 PPG, Rennes on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 15W 9D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (8W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.71 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Rennes in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 25W 24D 9L in their last 58 games (1.71 PPG), while Rennes have gone 28W 12D 18L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Rennes away?
Le Havre's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.93 PPG; Rennes away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Rennes in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Rennes won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
3
Draws
3
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Rennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Rennes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rennes 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 36%, Rennes 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Le Havre) and 50% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Le Havre's recent matches and 64% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Le Havre's recent games and 50% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Rennes tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Rennes in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rennes defy the odds to beat Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.36 xG and Rennes 1.21 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Rennes attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 37% | Draw 32% | Rennes 30%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 34%, Rennes 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rennes's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.71 PPG, Rennes 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Rennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.