Everton 1-3 West Ham – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Everton at 50%, yet in-form West Ham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Everton welcome West Ham to Goodison Park in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Everton at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Everton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, West Ham have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, West Ham have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. West Ham's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Everton's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Everton have won 2, West Ham 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Everton 1–0 West Ham — a Everton win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Everton in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

West Ham in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus West Ham 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 44% | West Ham 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.59 xG and West Ham 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.786 / defence 0.838 | West Ham attack 0.788 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.557. Everton's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.59. West Ham's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Everton's last 64 games and West Ham's last 64.

Result probabilities: Everton 50% | Draw 26% | West Ham 24%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.01 | Draw 3.79 | West Ham 4.19. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form West Ham (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches — though recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 50% (last 10 home games) | West Ham 60% (last 10 away games).

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