Pardubice 1-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Pardubice face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to CFIG Arena to face Pardubice in Czech Liga (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pardubice's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Pardubice have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sparta Praha have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sparta Praha away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.60 PPG clear of Pardubice over their recent games (2.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Sparta Praha, who have 4 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Pardubice 2–5 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sparta Praha have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 5.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 47% versus Sparta Praha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 41% | Sparta Praha 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pardubice surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Sparta Praha have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.81 xG and Sparta Praha 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.690 / defence 0.950 | Sparta Praha attack 1.306 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.151. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Sparta Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.798, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pardubice's projected output down. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.306, which lifts their away xG to 1.43. Data: built from Pardubice's last 46 games and Sparta Praha's last 46.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 21% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 52%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.68 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Praha 1.94. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Pardubice's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pardubice 30% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 21% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Pardubice 0.81 / Sparta Praha 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.690 / def 0.950 | Sparta Praha attack 1.306 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Sparta Praha xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Pardubice 1 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 21% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pardubice and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Pardubice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.69x the league average against Sparta Praha's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.31x) against Pardubice's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 46 games and Sparta Praha's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
21%
4.68
27%
3.70
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.24
1.43
Sparta Praha xG
4.68
21%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
5%
19.50
23%
4.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 15.2 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.43 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Pardubice have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 15W 9D 27L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Sparta Praha's form line: 36W 11D 4L from 51 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 25 home games (8W 6D 11L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 16W 7D 2L from their last 25 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.27 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 15W 9D 27L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 36W 11D 4L in their last 51 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.20 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pardubice and Sparta Praha, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Sparta Praha 5-2 Pardubice on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 0W 0D 4L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pardubice
0
Draws
9
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Sparta Praha 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 44%, Sparta Praha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pardubice) and 44% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 44%; Pardubice have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Sparta Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pardubice's recent matches and 52% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pardubice's recent games and 44% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Pardubice's recent matches and 76% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Pardubice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Pardubice 1-2 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.81 xG and Sparta Praha 1.43 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.69 / defence 0.95 against Sparta Praha attack 1.31 / defence 0.80, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 21% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 52%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 41%, Sparta Praha 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.