Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna plays host to Baník Ostrava versus Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Baník Ostrava against 1.70 for Plzen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Baník Ostrava 1W, Plzen 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Plzen — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 57% and Plzen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 57% | Plzen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG and Plzen 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.969 / defence 0.958 | Plzen attack 1.359 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.235. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Baník Ostrava games / 49 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 33% | Draw 24% | Plzen 43%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Plzen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 40% | Plzen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 33% | Draw 24% | Plzen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.38 / Plzen 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.969 / def 0.958 | Plzen attack 1.359 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Plzen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Plzen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 33% chance of winning, Plzen a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Record (3 meetings): Baník Ostrava 1W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Plzen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.97x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.36x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
33%
3.05
24%
4.11
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.98
1.61
Plzen xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
7%
15.25
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.61 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 12D 23L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 1.80 PPG from 54 outings (29W 10D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 12W 3D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.69 points per game from 26 outings (13W 5D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.96 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Plzen have gone 29W 10D 15L in their last 54 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.50 PPG; Plzen away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Plzen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 54%, Plzen 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Baník Ostrava and 65% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Baník Ostrava's games and 65% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 65% of Plzen's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Plzen tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Plzen in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Baník Ostrava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG and Plzen 1.61 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Plzen attack 1.36 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 33% | Draw 24% | Plzen 43%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 57%, Plzen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.