FK Jablonec 3-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FK Jablonec face Teplice.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 17). Kick-off: Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

FK Jablonec's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Teplice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Teplice away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Teplice edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended FK Jablonec 0–0 Teplice — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Teplice — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 63% and Teplice 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 53% | Teplice 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FK Jablonec surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.33 xG and Teplice 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.928 / defence 1.003 | Teplice attack 0.912 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.158. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 46 games and Teplice's last 46.

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 27% | Teplice 30%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.33 | Draw 3.65 | Teplice 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 60% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).

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