FK Jablonec 3-2 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FK Jablonec face Karviná.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Karviná meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga (Relegation Round - 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FK Jablonec have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karviná (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Karviná have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, FK Jablonec edge it 2 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended FK Jablonec 0–0 Karviná — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Karviná — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 60% versus Karviná 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 40% | Karviná 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.42 xG and Karviná 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.945 / defence 1.041 | Karviná attack 0.836 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 60 games and Karviná's last 30.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 29% | Karviná 29%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.35 | Draw 3.46 | Karviná 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 80% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 29% | Karviná 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.42 / Karviná 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.945 / def 1.041 | Karviná attack 0.836 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Karviná xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Karviná FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Karviná kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
FK Jablonec 3 - 2 Karviná.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Karviná part of?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Round - 1) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 43% chance of winning, Karviná a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FK Jablonec and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.94) and Karviná's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.84x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 60 games and Karviná's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.46
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.54
1.12
Karviná xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.12 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 12D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.83 PPG from 30 outings (6W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for FK Jablonec against 0.83 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 4W 7D 4L across their last 15 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 15 away games (2W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.00 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ FK Jablonec vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 6W 12D 12L in their last 30 games (1.00 PPG), while Karviná have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Karviná away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.27 PPG; Karviná away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 5-0 Karviná on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 1D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 73%, Karviná 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (FK Jablonec) and 53% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Karviná in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Karviná matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of FK Jablonec's games and 53% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 53% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 67% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Karviná 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Karviná 3-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Relegation Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.42 xG and Karviná 1.12 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Karviná attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 29% | Karviná 29%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 40%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.00 PPG, Karviná 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.