FK Jablonec 1-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mlada Boleslav (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FK Jablonec face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Mlada Boleslav arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Mlada Boleslav hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 1–3 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mlada Boleslav have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 61% and Mlada Boleslav 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 51% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.23 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.958 / defence 1.075 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.972 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.254. Data: 59 FK Jablonec games / 59 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 37%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Mlada Boleslav 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Mlada Boleslav 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG FK Jablonec 1.23 / Mlada Boleslav 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.958 / def 1.075 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.972 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Mlada Boleslav xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 33% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (5 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 4W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.97x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.36
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.54
1.31
Mlada Boleslav xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.31 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 16W 20D 25L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 22L across 61 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.33 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 10W 13D 7L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.44 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Mlada Boleslav in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 25L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 21W 18D 22L in their last 61 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.43 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 67%, Mlada Boleslav 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FK Jablonec) and 53% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FK Jablonec's games and 53% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 53% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 30, as FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.23 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.31 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 37%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 51%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.11 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.