Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ďolíček. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Bohemians 1905, 1.00 for FK Jablonec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The historical record gives Bohemians 1905 a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 54% versus FK Jablonec 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 50% | FK Jablonec 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.37 xG and FK Jablonec 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.826 / defence 0.893 | FK Jablonec attack 0.891 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 Bohemians 1905 games / 60 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 27%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | FK Jablonec 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 20% | FK Jablonec 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.37 / FK Jablonec 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.826 / def 0.893 | FK Jablonec attack 0.891 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FK Jablonec xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 43% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 1905 4W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.83x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.89x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.36
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.40
1.03
FK Jablonec xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.03 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 66 games, going 23W 18D 25L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.11 PPG from 66 outings (17W 22D 27L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.11 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 11W 10D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.81 points per game from 32 outings (6W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.32 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 23W 18D 25L in their last 66 games (1.32 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 17W 22D 27L in their last 66 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or FK Jablonec away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.34 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, FK Jablonec 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bohemians 1905) and 56% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 31% of games; FK Jablonec in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 56% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 56% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Relegation Round - 2, as Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.37 xG and FK Jablonec 1.03 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against FK Jablonec attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 27%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 50%, FK Jablonec 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.32 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.