Sigma Olomouc 1-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Andrův stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Slavia Praha (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 2 for Slavia Praha and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 57% versus Slavia Praha 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 57% | Slavia Praha 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.08 xG and Slavia Praha 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.009 / defence 0.910 | Slavia Praha attack 1.236 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.160. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Sigma Olomouc games / 44 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 31% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 42%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Slavia Praha 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Slavia Praha 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 31% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.08 / Slavia Praha 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.009 / def 0.910 | Slavia Praha attack 1.236 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Slavia Praha xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 31% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.24x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.63
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.38
1.30
Slavia Praha xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.30 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 19W 15D 15L from 49 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 34W 9D 6L across 49 games — 2.27 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sigma Olomouc heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 12W 7D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.51 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 19W 15D 15L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 34W 9D 6L in their last 49 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.50 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 0-5 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 58%, Slavia Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sigma Olomouc) and 46% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 50% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 46% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 1-3 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.08 xG and Slavia Praha 1.30 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.71, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 31% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 42%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 57%, Slavia Praha 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.