Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Changchun Yatai at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 July 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at TEDA Football Stadium: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.20 PPG versus Changchun Yatai's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Changchun Yatai 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 62% and Changchun Yatai 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 45% | Changchun Yatai 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.77 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.864 / defence 0.864 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.985 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.361. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Tianjin Teda games / 47 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 25%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Changchun Yatai 4.00. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jul 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.77 / Changchun Yatai 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.864 / def 0.864 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.985 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Changchun Yatai xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 July 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 52% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
Record (7 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 4 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.86) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.21
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.92
1.16
Changchun Yatai xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
4%
23.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.16 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 17W 20D 10L from 47 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 19L across 47 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.51 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 6W 14D 3L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.45 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 17W 20D 10L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 14W 14D 19L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.39 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2021, when Changchun Yatai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
6
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, Changchun Yatai 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Tianjin Teda) and 48% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 30%; Tianjin Teda have failed to score in 30% of games; Changchun Yatai in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 52% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 48% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai finished level at 2-2 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.77 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.16 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.86 / defence 0.86 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.98 / defence 1.27, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 25%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 45%, Changchun Yatai 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.51 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.