Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chengdu Better City (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nantong Zhiyun face Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chengdu Better City make the trip to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nantong Zhiyun (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's home record at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Chengdu Better City have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Chengdu Better City arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Chengdu Better City, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
It is worth noting that Chengdu Better City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Chengdu Better City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 60% versus Chengdu Better City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 38% | Chengdu Better City 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.90 xG and Chengdu Better City 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.658 / defence 1.082 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.377 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.359. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Nantong Zhiyun games / 47 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 16% | Draw 21% | Chengdu Better City 63%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Chengdu Better City 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Nantong Zhiyun 50% | Chengdu Better City 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 16% | Draw 21% | Chengdu Better City 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.90 / Chengdu Better City 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.658 / def 1.082 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.377 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Chengdu Better City xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City?
Nantong Zhiyun 0 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 16% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Chengdu Better City?
Record (3 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 0 | Chengdu Better City 3W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Chengdu Better City in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nantong Zhiyun's attack at 0.66x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.38x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
16%
6.40
21%
4.69
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.93
2.02
Chengdu Better City xG
6.40
16%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
13%
7.58
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
2%
48.50
26%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 2.02 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Nantong Zhiyun have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 7W 15D 25L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City's form line: 26W 10D 11L from 47 games, 1.87 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantong Zhiyun.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 0.65 PPG from 23 outings (3W 6D 14L).
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 10W 6D 7L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 7W 15D 25L in their last 47 games (0.77 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 26W 10D 11L in their last 47 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.65 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Nantong Zhiyun or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantong Zhiyun have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Chengdu Better City have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
0
Draws
4
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Chengdu Better City?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Chengdu Better City have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 7 July 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 48%, Chengdu Better City 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 52% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 61% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 52% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Nantong Zhiyun 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.90 xG and Chengdu Better City 2.02 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantong Zhiyun fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Chengdu Better City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.66 / defence 1.08 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.38 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 16% | Draw 21% | Chengdu Better City 63%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 38%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.77. Form held, and they took the win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.