Chengdu Better City 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chengdu Better City (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chengdu Better City face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Chengdu Better City welcome Tianjin Teda to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 July 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 8W 1D 1L at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Tianjin Teda 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Tianjin Teda trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 52% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 58% | Tianjin Teda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.50 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.411 / defence 0.772 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.201 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.329. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Tianjin Teda have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Chengdu Better City games / 48 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 65% | Draw 18% | Tianjin Teda 17%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Tianjin Teda 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.50 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 30% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jul 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 65% | Draw 18% | Tianjin Teda 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 65% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.50 / Tianjin Teda 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.411 / def 0.772 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.201 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Tianjin Teda xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 12 July 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 65% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Record (5 meetings): Chengdu Better City 2W | Draws 3 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.41x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
65%
1.54
18%
5.44
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.74
1.23
Tianjin Teda xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
8%
12.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
1%
72.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.23 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 27W 10D 11L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 17W 21D 10L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chengdu Better City on 1.90 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.17 PPG from 24 outings (16W 4D 4L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 11W 6D 7L from 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.42 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 27W 10D 11L in their last 48 games (1.90 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 17W 21D 10L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.17 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 46%, Tianjin Teda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Chengdu Better City) and 50% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Chengdu Better City's games and 67% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 50% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.50 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.23 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.41 / defence 0.77 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.20 / defence 1.05, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 65% | Draw 18% | Tianjin Teda 17%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 58%, Tianjin Teda 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.90 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.