Sichuan Jiuniu 1-4 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Sichuan Jiuniu, 0.80 for Shandong Luneng — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sichuan Jiuniu 0W, Shandong Luneng 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 50% versus Shandong Luneng 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Shandong Luneng 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.14 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.647 / defence 1.221 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.823 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.340. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.647 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 56 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 32% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 41%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Shandong Luneng 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Shandong Luneng 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 32% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.14 / Shandong Luneng 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.647 / def 1.221 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.823 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Shandong Luneng xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 4 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 32% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng?
Record (1 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (0.65) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.82x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
32%
3.16
27%
3.71
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.49
1.35
Shandong Luneng xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.35 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu come into this having played 26 games, going 6W 6D 14L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 1.46 PPG from 26 outings (10W 8D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sichuan Jiuniu's home form reads 3W 3D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.38 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 6W 6D 14L in their last 26 games (0.92 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 10W 8D 8L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.00 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Sichuan Jiuniu or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sichuan Jiuniu have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Shandong Luneng go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 11 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 50%, Shandong Luneng 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sichuan Jiuniu) and 42% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 33%; Sichuan Jiuniu have failed to score in 42% of games; Shandong Luneng in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sichuan Jiuniu's recent matches and 42% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Sichuan Jiuniu's recent games and 42% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-4 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.14 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.35 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.65 / defence 1.22 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 32% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 41%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 54%, Shandong Luneng 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.