Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Jonoon face Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Qingdao Jonoon have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Shanghai Shenhua are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Shanghai Shenhua, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
It is worth noting that Shanghai Shenhua have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Shanghai Shenhua 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 45% | Shanghai Shenhua 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.12 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.879 / defence 1.158 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.331 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.345. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Qingdao Jonoon games / 56 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 20% | Draw 21% | Shanghai Shenhua 59%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 70% | Shanghai Shenhua 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 20% | Draw 21% | Shanghai Shenhua 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.12 / Shanghai Shenhua 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.879 / def 1.158 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.331 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Shanghai Shenhua xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 20% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (3 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 3W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.88x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.33x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
20%
5.00
21%
4.80
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.20
2.07
Shanghai Shenhua xG
5.00
20%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
13%
7.95
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
3%
39.74
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 2.07 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 56 games, going 14W 12D 30L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 2.12 PPG from 56 outings (36W 11D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 12W 6D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 2.00 points per game from 28 outings (17W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.79 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 14W 12D 30L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 36W 11D 9L in their last 56 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.50 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
8
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Shanghai Shenhua 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 46% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 46%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 46% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 46% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.12 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 2.07 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.33 / defence 0.71, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 20% | Draw 21% | Shanghai Shenhua 59%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 45%, Shanghai Shenhua 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.