Sichuan Jiuniu 0-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sichuan Jiuniu welcome Meizhou Kejia to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 12:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.90. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sichuan Jiuniu at 0.80 PPG versus Meizhou Kejia's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Meizhou Kejia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 52% versus Meizhou Kejia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 56% | Meizhou Kejia 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.52 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.645 / defence 1.413 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.902 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.309. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 57 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 35% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 41%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Meizhou Kejia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Meizhou Kejia 50%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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