Shandong Luneng 4-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shandong Luneng face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 1 March 2024 at 10:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Shandong Luneng's favour (2.30 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Shandong Luneng, who have won 5 of the last 6 meetings against Changchun Yatai — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 3–0 with Shandong Luneng winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shandong Luneng and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 61% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.92 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.219 / defence 0.918 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.950 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.276. Data: 30 Shandong Luneng games / 30 Changchun Yatai games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 56% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 22%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Changchun Yatai 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 50% | Changchun Yatai 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 56% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.92 / Changchun Yatai 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.219 / def 0.918 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.950 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Changchun Yatai xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 10:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 56% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
Record (6 meetings): Shandong Luneng 5W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.95x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.49
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.04
1.11
Changchun Yatai xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
3%
31.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.11 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 64 games, going 41W 13D 10L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.30 PPG from 64 outings (21W 20D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 27W 3D 2L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.25 points per game from 32 outings (10W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.45 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 41W 13D 10L in their last 64 games (2.12 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.62 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 16 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
0
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 8, Changchun Yatai have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 41%, Changchun Yatai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Shandong Luneng and 56% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 53% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 56% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 4-2 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.92 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.11 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.22 / defence 0.92 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 56% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 22%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 61%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.