Hangzhou Greentown 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hangzhou Greentown face Sichuan Jiuniu.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 11:35 UK time.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.11 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.125 / defence 0.929 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.248. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 30 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 62% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 15%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.62 | Draw 4.31 | Sichuan Jiuniu 6.62. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Hangzhou Greentown 30 games, Sichuan Jiuniu 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, matchday 1 | Venue: Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 11:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 62% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.11 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.125 / def 0.929 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu FAQs
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:35 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Super League fixture (matchday 1) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 62% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.12) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.85x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 30 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.31
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.10
0.98
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
12%
8.27
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
2%
54.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.98 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Hangzhou Greentown (Home) vs Sichuan Jiuniu (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.11 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.98 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 62% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 15%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.