Shandong Luneng 5-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Shandong Luneng. A 0.60 PPG lead over Henan Jianye (2.30 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shandong Luneng lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2023, ended 1–0 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Henan Jianye 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 61% | Henan Jianye 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.41 xG and Henan Jianye 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.465 / defence 0.758 | Henan Jianye attack 0.826 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Shandong Luneng games / 62 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 73% | Draw 17% | Henan Jianye 10%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Henan Jianye 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 50% | Henan Jianye 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 73% | Draw 17% | Henan Jianye 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 49% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.41 / Henan Jianye 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.465 / def 0.758 | Henan Jianye attack 0.826 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Henan Jianye xG
49%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng 5 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 73% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Record (3 meetings): Shandong Luneng 2W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.41. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.83x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.91
10%
10.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.18
0.78
Henan Jianye xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
10.07
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
9%
11.09
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
111.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.78 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 62 games, going 39W 13D 10L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.48 PPG from 62 outings (25W 17D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 25W 3D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.10 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (8W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.52 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 39W 13D 10L in their last 62 games (2.10 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 20L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.60 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 40%, Henan Jianye 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Shandong Luneng) and 40% (Henan Jianye). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 47% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 40% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Henan Jianye 5-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.41 xG and Henan Jianye 0.78 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.47 / defence 0.76 against Henan Jianye attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 73% | Draw 17% | Henan Jianye 10%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 61%, Henan Jianye 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.90 average — above their attacking norm. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.