Qingdao Huanghai 0-5 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Huadu Stadium to take on Qingdao Huanghai. The game is scheduled for Monday 2 August 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Huanghai stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Huanghai at Huadu Stadium this season: 2W 0D 3L from 5 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Qingdao Huanghai are significantly better at Huadu Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Shandong Luneng's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Qingdao Huanghai's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Qingdao Huanghai, 1 for Shandong Luneng and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2021, ended 0–2 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Huanghai in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Qingdao Huanghai 30% | Shandong Luneng 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Huanghai 40% | Shandong Luneng 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 0.81 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.741 / defence 1.764 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.008 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.166. Qingdao Huanghai's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Qingdao Huanghai games / 10 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 11% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 64%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 9.09 | Draw 4.00 | Shandong Luneng 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Huanghai 40% | Shandong Luneng 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Aug 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 11% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Qingdao Huanghai 0.81 / Shandong Luneng 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.741 / def 1.764 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.008 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Shandong Luneng xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 2 August 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng?
Qingdao Huanghai 0 - 5 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 11% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 64% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Shandong Luneng?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Huanghai 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Shandong Luneng in?
Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Qingdao Huanghai's attack at 0.74x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Qingdao Huanghai's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
11%
9.30
25%
3.94
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.88
2.07
Shandong Luneng xG
9.30
11%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
13%
7.96
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
1%
74.01
28%
3.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 2.07 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Huanghai come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 1D 7L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Qingdao Huanghai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Qingdao Huanghai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Qingdao Huanghai's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.70 PPG overall — Qingdao Huanghai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Huanghai are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Huanghai have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Huanghai at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Huanghai at home: 1.20 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Qingdao Huanghai or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Huanghai have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Huanghai
0
Draws
2
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Shandong Luneng?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2021, when Qingdao Huanghai 0-5 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Huanghai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Huanghai 40%, Shandong Luneng 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Qingdao Huanghai) and 40% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 40%; Qingdao Huanghai have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Huanghai play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent matches and 60% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Huanghai vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent games and 40% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Huanghai and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Qingdao Huanghai have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Qingdao Huanghai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Huanghai 0-5 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 0.81 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.07 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Huanghai fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 2.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.74 / defence 1.76 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 11% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 64%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Huanghai 40%, Shandong Luneng 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.