Shanghai Shenhua 0-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hebei Zhongji make the trip to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Tuesday 3 August 2021 at 09:30 UTC.
Form
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 4W 3D 2L across 9 Super League fixtures this term — 1.67 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hebei Zhongji's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games (1.89 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 0.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.67 PPG for Shanghai Shenhua against 1.89 for Hebei Zhongji. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shanghai Shenhua lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shanghai Shenhua 67% and Hebei Zhongji 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shanghai Shenhua 44% | Hebei Zhongji 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.18 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.030 / defence 1.133 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.715 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.017 / away 1.214. Data: 9 Shanghai Shenhua games / 9 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 37% | Draw 36% | Hebei Zhongji 27%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Hebei Zhongji 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 75% | Hebei Zhongji 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Aug 2021, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 37% | Draw 36% | Hebei Zhongji 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.18 / Hebei Zhongji 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.030 / def 1.133 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.715 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.017 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Hebei Zhongji xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 09:30 on Tuesday 3 August 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Shanghai Shenhua 0 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 37% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (1 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 0W | Draws 1 | Hebei Zhongji 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 0.78 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hebei Zhongji's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.71x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
37%
2.70
36%
2.79
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.16
0.98
Hebei Zhongji xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.98 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 4W 3D 2L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hebei Zhongji's form line: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games, 1.89 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Shanghai Shenhua against 1.89 for Hebei Zhongji. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 1.11 scored and 0.78 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.00 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
2
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 7 July 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 75%, Hebei Zhongji 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 25% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 25% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 25% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shanghai Shenhua's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua and Hebei Zhongji finished level at 0-0 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.18 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.98 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Hebei Zhongji landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.03 / defence 1.13 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 37% | Draw 36% | Hebei Zhongji 27%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 44%, Hebei Zhongji 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.67 PPG, Hebei Zhongji 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.