Changchun Yatai 2-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Changchun Yatai take on SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kunshan Sports Center Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 3 August 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.78 PPG across 9 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 1L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 4 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 5W 4D 0L from 9 games (2.11 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 0.44. Defensively, 0.44 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 1W 3D 0L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.11 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.78 for Changchun Yatai, 2.11 for SHANGHAI SIPG — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 44% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Changchun Yatai 44% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.93 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.920 / defence 0.827 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.898 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.195. Data: 9 Changchun Yatai games / 9 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 31% | Draw 40% | SHANGHAI SIPG 29%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.23 | Draw 2.50 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.45. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 0% | SHANGHAI SIPG 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 31% | Draw 40% | SHANGHAI SIPG 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.93 / SHANGHAI SIPG 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.920 / def 0.827 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.898 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.89
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 3 August 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 31% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 29% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (1 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-4D-1L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-4D-0L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 0.44 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.90x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
40%
2.49
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
1.82
0.89
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.49
40%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 14.4 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.89 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 4D 1L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (5W 4D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 2.11 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (1W 3D 0L). That's a step down from their 2.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SHANGHAI SIPG's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.78 scored and 0.44 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 4D 1L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 5W 4D 0L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 2.00 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 18 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 0%, SHANGHAI SIPG 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Changchun Yatai and 25% for SHANGHAI SIPG.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 75% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 25% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.93 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 0.89 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.92 / defence 0.83 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 31% | Draw 40% | SHANGHAI SIPG 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Changchun Yatai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 44%, SHANGHAI SIPG 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.78 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.