Meizhou Kejia 4-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Meizhou Kejia face Changchun Yatai.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Changchun Yatai travel to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to take on Meizhou Kejia in Super League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Form Guide

Meizhou Kejia — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Meizhou Kejia's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Changchun Yatai stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Changchun Yatai away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Meizhou Kejia 1.00 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, Changchun Yatai 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2023, ended Meizhou Kejia 4–2 Changchun Yatai — a Meizhou Kejia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 56% versus Changchun Yatai 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 57% | Changchun Yatai 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.72 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.137 / defence 1.032 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.048 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.212. Data: built from Meizhou Kejia's last 54 games and Changchun Yatai's last 54.

Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 27%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.21 | Draw 3.64 | Changchun Yatai 3.65. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Meizhou Kejia's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Meizhou Kejia 70% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights