Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Shenzhen Ruby FC meet at Shanghai Stadium in Super League (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shanghai Shenhua's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shanghai Shenhua's 1.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Shenzhen Ruby FC's 0.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2023, ended Shanghai Shenhua 3–1 Shenzhen Ruby FC — a Shanghai Shenhua win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shanghai Shenhua goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 53% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 36% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.02 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.790 / defence 1.059 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.777 / defence 1.661. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.245. Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 2.02. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.661 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output up. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 54 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 53.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 59% | Draw 24% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.70 | Draw 4.16 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 5.85. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 home games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shanghai Shenhua 50% (last 10 home games) | Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, matchday 21 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 59% | Draw 24% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.02 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.790 / def 1.059 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.777 / def 1.661 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC FAQs
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Wednesday 9 August 2023 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Shanghai Shenhua 3 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Super League fixture (matchday 21) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 59% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.78x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 54 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.16
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.04
1.02
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
2%
43.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.02 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 23W 16D 14L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form line: 12W 6D 35L from 53 games, 0.79 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 7D 7L).
On the road, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 4D 18L from their last 26 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.91 scored and 2.32 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua (Home) vs Shenzhen Ruby FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Form FAQs
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 23W 16D 14L in their last 53 games (1.60 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 35L in their last 53 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.65 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 9 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shanghai Shenhua have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC on 9 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Shanghai Shenhua
1
Draws
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2023: Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 65% (Shenzhen Ruby FC).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shanghai Shenhua and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shanghai Shenhua and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 65% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 77% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 3-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.02 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.79 / defence 1.06 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.66, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 59% | Draw 24% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 17%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 36%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.