Changchun Yatai 1-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Changchun Yatai face Nantong Zhiyun.

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Full Analysis

Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Nantong Zhiyun in Super League (matchday 20). Kick-off: Friday 4 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Current Form

Changchun Yatai's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Changchun Yatai at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Nantong Zhiyun have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Nantong Zhiyun's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 5L across their last 9 road games (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Changchun Yatai, 0.80 for Nantong Zhiyun — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 9 away games) — Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Nantong Zhiyun in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Changchun Yatai, 0 for Nantong Zhiyun and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 1–0 Nantong Zhiyun — a Changchun Yatai win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 63% and Nantong Zhiyun 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Nantong Zhiyun 32%). Note also that Nantong Zhiyun surrender HT leads in 100% of cases while Changchun Yatai recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.122 / defence 1.172 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.709 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.213. Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 53 games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 19.

Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 48% | Draw 30% | Nantong Zhiyun 22%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.09 | Draw 3.34 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.51. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 70% (last 10 home games) | Nantong Zhiyun 67% (last 9 away games).

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