Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hebei Zhongji at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Jinzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 June 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hebei Zhongji's overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jinzhou Stadium, Hebei Zhongji have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hebei Zhongji are significantly better at Jinzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.76 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.988 / defence 0.976 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.253. Data: 14 Hebei Zhongji games / 0 Wuhan Three Towns games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 53% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Wuhan Three Towns 4.76. Hebei Zhongji hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hebei Zhongji at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hebei Zhongji if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jun 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 53% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.76 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.988 / def 0.976 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Hebei Zhongji (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Wuhan Three Towns xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 3 June 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 4 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 53% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hebei Zhongji the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Hebei Zhongji home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 0.99x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.85x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 14/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hebei Zhongji Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.75
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.80
1.04
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
4%
28.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.04 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 2 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns 5-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Hebei Zhongji 0-4 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.76 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.04 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 53% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%, with Hebei Zhongji to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Wuhan Three Towns win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.