Meizhou Kejia 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 June 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 0.99 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.971 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.252. Data: 0 Meizhou Kejia games / 14 Tianjin Teda games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 27% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 46%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Tianjin Teda 2.17. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jun 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 27% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Meizhou Kejia 0.99 / Tianjin Teda 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.971 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Tianjin Teda xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 June 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 27% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Tianjin Teda away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (0.85) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.97x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 0/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
27%
3.76
27%
3.70
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.39
1.40
Tianjin Teda xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
15.19
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.40 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
4
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 0.99 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.40 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 0/14 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 27% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 46%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.