Henan Jianye 2-2 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Henan Jianye welcome Dalian Aerbin to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Aerbin — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Henan Jianye) versus 1.30 (Dalian Aerbin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Henan Jianye, 1 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 41% versus Dalian Aerbin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 18% | Dalian Aerbin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.19 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.030 / defence 0.986 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.997 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.211. Data: 14 Henan Jianye games / 14 Dalian Aerbin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 36%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Dalian Aerbin 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 50% | Dalian Aerbin 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (14 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Henan Jianye 1.19 / Dalian Aerbin 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.030 / def 0.986 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.997 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Dalian Aerbin xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 4 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Henan Jianye 2 - 2 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 36% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.03x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
36%
2.78
28%
3.60
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.38
1.19
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.19 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Henan Jianye come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 9D 6L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (6W 2D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Henan Jianye's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (3W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.95 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 2D 14L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.00 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 4, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-3 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 54%, Dalian Aerbin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Henan Jianye) and 54% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 1, as Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.19 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.19 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Aerbin outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 14/14 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 36%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 18%, Dalian Aerbin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.