Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hangzhou Greentown face Sichuan Jiuniu.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 2W 7D 1L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.00 for Sichuan Jiuniu. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2025, ended Hangzhou Greentown 4–2 Sichuan Jiuniu — a Hangzhou Greentown win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Sichuan Jiuniu 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%). Note also that Sichuan Jiuniu surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Hangzhou Greentown recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.65 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.819 / defence 0.834 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.752 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.163. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 38 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 38.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.68 | Draw 4.12 | Sichuan Jiuniu 6.12. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 home games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hangzhou Greentown 80% (last 10 home games) | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.65 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.819 / def 0.834 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.752 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu FAQs
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 59% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (0.82) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.75x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 38 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.12
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.38
0.73
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
3%
31.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.73 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 17D 22L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Sichuan Jiuniu sit at 0.93 PPG from 60 outings (15W 11D 34L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hangzhou Greentown's home form reads 14W 11D 5L across their last 30 home games, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sichuan Jiuniu have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 30 away games (5W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.07 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown (Home) vs Sichuan Jiuniu (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu Form FAQs
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.77 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 80%, Sichuan Jiuniu 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hangzhou Greentown and 57% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 57% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.65 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.73 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.75 / defence 1.20, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Sichuan Jiuniu 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.