Chengdu Better City 4-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 70% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium to face Chengdu Better City in Super League (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Chengdu Better City's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.30 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) — Chengdu Better City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hangzhou Greentown in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Hangzhou Greentown managing 1 and 3 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Chengdu Better City 3–3 Hangzhou Greentown — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Chengdu Better City and goals — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.1 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chengdu Better City 58% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chengdu Better City 60% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%). Note also that Hangzhou Greentown surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Chengdu Better City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.59 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.376 / defence 0.899 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.063 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.112. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack rating of 1.376 — their 2.59 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 37 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 37.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 70% | Draw 16% | Hangzhou Greentown 13%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.42 | Draw 6.09 | Hangzhou Greentown 7.48. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (70%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.59 / 1.06) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Chengdu Better City 4 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chengdu Better City 60% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 8 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 70% | Draw 16% | Hangzhou Greentown 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Chengdu Better City 2.59 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.376 / def 0.899 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.063 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Hangzhou Greentown xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Chengdu Better City 4 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 8) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 70% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.59. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.06x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Chengdu Better City's last 37 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 1-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
70%
1.42
16%
6.09
13%
7.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.66
1.06
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.42
70%
Home win
6.09
16%
Draw
7.48
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
7%
13.36
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
1%
99.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.06 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 60 games, going 35W 14D 11L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (21W 17D 22L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 21W 5D 4L across their last 30 home games, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.92 scored and 1.85 conceded. Hangzhou Greentown's attacking output running into Chengdu Better City's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Chengdu Better City (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 35W 14D 11L in their last 60 games (1.98 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.27 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Chengdu Better City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 4-0 Hangzhou Greentown on 25 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
1
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have won 6, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Hangzhou Greentown 2-3 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Chengdu Better City and 70% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Hangzhou Greentown in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 53% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Hangzhou Greentown 4-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.59 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.06 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.38 / defence 0.90 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.06 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 70% | Draw 16% | Hangzhou Greentown 13%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.