St. Truiden 1-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Kortrijk travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 February 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kortrijk — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St. Truiden 1.30 PPG, Kortrijk 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 3, Kortrijk 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with St. Truiden winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 50% versus Kortrijk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 43% | Kortrijk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.93 xG and Kortrijk 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.974 / defence 0.934 | Kortrijk attack 0.855 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.218. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 St. Truiden games / 58 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 59% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 18%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Kortrijk 5.56. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 60% | Kortrijk 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 59% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG St. Truiden 1.93 / Kortrijk 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.974 / def 0.934 | Kortrijk attack 0.855 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kortrijk xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 February 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
St. Truiden 1 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk part of?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 59% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both St. Truiden and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
Record (5 meetings): St. Truiden 3W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.97) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.37
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.90
0.97
Kortrijk xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
3%
38.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.97 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 18W 19D 21L from 58 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 33L across 58 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours St. Truiden by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 11W 8D 10L from 29 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 5W 5D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.93 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 18W 19D 21L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 12W 13D 33L in their last 58 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Kortrijk away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.41 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
3
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 5, Kortrijk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 45%, Kortrijk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (St. Truiden) and 62% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 34% of games; Kortrijk in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 52% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of St. Truiden's recent games and 62% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Kortrijk tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Kortrijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Kortrijk 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.93 xG and Kortrijk 0.97 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Kortrijk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Kortrijk attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 59% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 18%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 43%, Kortrijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Kortrijk's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.