Cercle Brugge 4-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cercle Brugge at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden meet at Jan Breydelstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Cercle Brugge's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge at Jan Breydelstadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
St. Truiden have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Cercle Brugge, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against St. Truiden — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Cercle Brugge winning.
The historical record gives Cercle Brugge a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cercle Brugge — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 56% versus St. Truiden 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 53% | St. Truiden 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.70 xG and St. Truiden 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.950 / defence 1.011 | St. Truiden attack 0.999 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.221. Data: 57 Cercle Brugge games / 57 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 48% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 27%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | St. Truiden 3.70. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cercle Brugge as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cercle Brugge 40% | St. Truiden 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 48% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.70 / St. Truiden 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.950 / def 1.011 | St. Truiden attack 0.999 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.23
St. Truiden xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Cercle Brugge 4 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden part of?
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 48% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
Record (3 meetings): Cercle Brugge 3W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cercle Brugge's attack at 0.95x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.00x) against Cercle Brugge's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
48%
2.10
25%
3.98
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.93
1.23
St. Truiden xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
5%
20.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.23 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 25W 14D 18L from 57 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 20L across 57 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Cercle Brugge against 1.28 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 14W 7D 7L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 7W 11D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cercle Brugge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.16 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 25W 14D 18L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 18W 19D 20L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or St. Truiden away?
Cercle Brugge's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.75 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cercle Brugge won 4-1 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cercle Brugge have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cercle Brugge
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Cercle Brugge.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 54%, St. Truiden 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cercle Brugge) and 46% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 54% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cercle Brugge's recent games and 46% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cercle Brugge run riot with a 4-1 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat St. Truiden 4-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.70 xG and St. Truiden 1.23 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cercle Brugge beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against St. Truiden attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 48% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 27%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 53%, St. Truiden 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.56 PPG, St. Truiden 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.