RWDM 0-4 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RWDM vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RWDM and Antwerp meet at Edmond Machtensstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
RWDM (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Edmond Machtensstadion, RWDM have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — RWDM are significantly better at Edmond Machtensstadion than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Antwerp are 1.30 PPG clear of RWDM in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RWDM lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
RWDM goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RWDM 64% versus Antwerp 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 64% | Antwerp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.06 xG and Antwerp 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 0.757 / defence 1.341 | Antwerp attack 0.937 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.200. RWDM's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 RWDM games / 58 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 26% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 47%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Antwerp 2.13. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RWDM 70% | Antwerp 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 26% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG RWDM 1.06 / Antwerp 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 0.757 / def 1.341 | Antwerp attack 0.937 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Antwerp xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs Antwerp kick off?
RWDM vs Antwerp kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Antwerp?
RWDM 0 - 4 Antwerp.
Where is RWDM vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What competition is RWDM vs Antwerp part of?
RWDM vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 26% chance of winning, Antwerp a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RWDM and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Antwerp?
Record (1 meetings): RWDM 0W | Draws 1 | Antwerp 0W.
What form are RWDM and Antwerp in?
RWDM (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Antwerp (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RWDM's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.94x) against RWDM's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 24/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
26%
3.79
26%
3.82
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.57
1.51
Antwerp xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
6%
17.10
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are RWDM and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for RWDM and 1.51 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, RWDM have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 26W 13D 17L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp's form line: 28W 16D 12L from 56 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for RWDM against 1.79 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RWDM have posted 1.89 PPG from 28 outings (15W 8D 5L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 9W 9D 10L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antwerp's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RWDM are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.68 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Antwerp in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and Antwerp in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 28W 16D 12L in their last 56 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Antwerp away?
RWDM's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 1.89 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.29 PPG.
Have RWDM or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Antwerp in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
RWDM
1
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Antwerp?
From 2 meetings on record, RWDM have won 0, Antwerp have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when RWDM 0-4 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 57%, Antwerp 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (RWDM) and 43% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: RWDM keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Antwerp in 36%; Antwerp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of RWDM's recent matches and 39% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RWDM vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of RWDM's recent games and 43% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RWDM and Antwerp tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 0-4 hammering of RWDM.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat RWDM 0-4 at Edmond Machtensstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.06 xG and Antwerp 1.51 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. RWDM fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Antwerp outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 0.76 / defence 1.34 against Antwerp attack 0.94 / defence 0.85, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 26% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 47%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 64%, Antwerp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RWDM 1.62 PPG, Antwerp 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.